9/20/2023 0 Comments Climatic data for region xTrend analysis of climate variables is the central process in assessing the state of the climate of a region and provides an overall estimate about the variations in the climate variables 16. Long-term trend analysis in temperature and precipitation is highly important for rainfed agricultural regions, where farmland is mainly reliant on precipitation, and for irrigated regions, where both temperature and precipitation can affect irrigation scheduling 15. A good description of temperature and precipitation trends and variability is essential for many studies related to hydrology, climatology, and agriculture. The changes in these two variable can easily alter the hydrological cycle and environmental processes 15. This occurrence shows that water resources of the LCB are highly vulnerable to rapidly changing global and regional climate, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, which are considered the most important elements in climate description 14. Furthermore, due to the shallow water level, LC is highly sensitive to changing climate, especially changes in precipitation and temperature 13. Since then, the northern pool has hardly been flooded 13. In addition, the lake was divided into the southern and northern pools in 1975 because of a devastating drought over the Sahel belt during the 1970s. One noticeable example is the water resources of the Lake Chad basin (LCB), where inflow to Lake Chad (LC) has diminished by 70–80% 11, and the surface area of the lake has been reduced to approximately 2,000 km 2 from 25,000 km 2 (approximately 90%) over the last 40 years 12, and even in the 1980s, it shrank to 300 km 2 12. 10, Africa has been identified as the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts, and specifically, the water resources of Africa are highly vulnerable to climate change. Although climate change is one of the largest threats to the world, the poor regions, especially in Africa, have been suffering the most because these areas are least equipped to cope with climate change impacts 7, 8, 9. However, changes in the water cycle vary from region to region throughout the world 6. The intensified water cycle can influence every aspect of human activities, such as human health, water energy exploitation, ecosystems, food security, and industrial and municipal water supplies 3. This global warming has been accelerating and intensifying the water cycle of the world, which can result in more violent storms, floods, and droughts 5. One noticeable example of changing climate is an increase in the global average temperature by 0.74 ☌ ± 0.18 ☌ in only the last 100 years (1906–2005) 4. The changing climate, global warming, and global energy imbalance are considered the main consequences of the dramatic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases due to human activities, especially industrialization, the burning of fossil fuel, and land use/land cover changes 1, 2, 3. Periodic analysis showed a 20- to 25-year cycle in precipitation in all basins and a 40- to 45-year cycle in temperature but only in the Chari-Logone basin. On the whole, the temperature was predicted to increase by 0.65–1.6 ☌ and precipitation was predicted to decrease by 13–11% in the next two decades (i.e., 2016–20–2035) relative to 1961–1990. This decrease might occur because these regions are highly protected natural resource areas and forests are frequently present. However, surprisingly, in some regions located in the South, the temperature was predicted to decrease slightly in 2021–2030 relative to 2006–2015. Temperature is expected to increase and precipitation is expected to decrease in the future. Eighty-four percent of the temperature time series indicated extremely strong signals of increasing trends (α = 0.001) and 25–38% of the precipitation time series indicated strong decreasing trends (α = 0.05). Since the water resources of the Lake Chad basin (LCB) are highly vulnerable to changing climate, in the present study, a combination of trend analysis methods was used to examine the climate variability and trends for the period of 1951–2015 using observed and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data, and a combination of spectral analysis techniques was used for the prediction of temperature and precipitation using CRU data. An understanding of climate variability, trends, and prediction for better water resource management and planning in a basin is very important.
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